630
AXNT20 KNHC 041049
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Gale-force winds associated with a deep low pressure at the north-
central to east Atlantic continues to generate large, long- period
NW to N swell across the central subtropical Atlantic waters. As a
result, expect seas of 12 to 16 ft from 26N to 31N between 33W and
55W. This area of very rough seas should gradually shift eastward
through Thu night, then move east of 35W on Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues west-southwestward from 04N20W through 00N30W to
01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02S to 05N
between 10W and 43W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends west-southwest from a 1025 mb high located
over central Florida, which covers the entire basin ahead of a
cold front that extends from SW Louisiana to southern Texas.
Moderate or weaker return flow is over the basin ahead and behind
of the cold front. Seas are mainly slight basin-wide.
For the forecast, the cold front will sweep southward across the
Gulf region through late Thu. Fresh to near gale force northerly
winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into
Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the northern Leeward Islands WSW
to southern Jamaica adjacent waters near 14N77W where it is
helping to induce some shower activity. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are in the vicinity of the front, except over the central
Caribbean where a tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to
strong winds and rough seas to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas to 7 ft.
For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate by early
this afternoon, however strong winds in the central Caribbean will
gradually diminish through Thu morning as high pressure N of the
area shifts eastward. A surface trough, remnants of the front,
will move W and reach the coast of Nicaragua today where it will
remain through Thu. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late
on Thu and will merge with the trough. Fresh to strong N winds and
building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from Haiti to
Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to near
gale force N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated
with the front will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on the
significant swell event.
A cold front extends from 31N37W to the northern Leeward Islands.
Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 25N,
and behind the front between 55W and 60W. Very rough seas, in
long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front. Rough
seas are ahead of the front. High pressure of 1026 mb is SW of
Bermuda, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds N of
25N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing E of the central
and southern Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas to 10 ft in
N swell. High pressure of 1020 mb is over the E subtropical
Atlantic waters ahead of the cold front, supporting light to
gentle winds between 20N to 27N and moderate to rough seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the northern part of the front will
continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will
remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the
northern Leeward Islands through today, then the front will begin
to lift N ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE
Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and
building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is
forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning,
and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. Gale conditions are
possible on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of
29N Thu night and Fri. Strong low pressure building N of the
forecast area could also bring gale force winds across the N
waters E of 70W Sat night and Sun.
$$
Ramos
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)